Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 58287.349389 61712.017483 65141.943775 68832.170229 72687.464336 76593.620309 80847.755964
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 53000.674024 58242.018507 63643.968776 69618.805829 76033.336570 82704.304151 90157.630144
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 49040.253991 55497.941052 62304.839009 69996.711315 78428.731601 87372.669938 97558.441451
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 45762.509918 53094.882354 60971.567825 70032.858858 80138.730630 91032.701177 103633.181762
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 43270.733334 51313.150451 60096.666009 70358.761365 81974.456791 94669.477786 109547.001199
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 40992.941538 49593.083562 59128.194599 70425.256363 83383.240366 97719.917340 114717.527583
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 39593.137556 48764.910412 59071.357537 71434.575169 85782.162254 101827.523929 121044.205402
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 37697.443967 47248.102960 58121.383813 71321.626328 86813.425786 104316.772333 125481.841328
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 36689.513411 46711.036140 58254.383997 72417.997702 89206.081651 108345.669945 131684.620577
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 35569.270632 45975.814836 58098.241444 73124.799467 91104.915635 111779.465195 137191.165283
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 34176.547928 44845.181319 57412.101316 73146.857650 92149.648670 114183.123229 141474.936545
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 32781.783261 43652.205248 56596.541018 72962.399230 92904.859358 116213.850920 145299.578074
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 32072.554757 43293.464022 56789.746033 74006.789394 95158.743152 120062.514004 151347.279603
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 31280.302401 42798.029000 56789.248935 74795.487747 97094.972710 123537.503985 156972.587530
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 30349.652363 42088.637471 56490.066584 75186.720480 98525.159487 126394.265158 161859.143120
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 29311.280578 41201.187212 55932.159236 75223.214741 99492.859511 128674.790783 166044.243315
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 28476.246928 40545.463628 55639.133106 75567.901896 100825.330784 131392.415423 170766.241793
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 27567.030745 39759.557407 55150.545568 75638.228862 101794.270400 133651.973710 174926.118735
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 27142.453744 39597.710571 55451.074892 76706.677111 104017.898254 137469.628765 181028.488202
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 26236.557120 38761.019710 54847.979214 76587.115522 104715.639266 139378.784561 184762.658431
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 25907.724582 38690.377292 55236.988268 77747.557110 107047.595393 143340.826295 191078.774919
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 25428.763410 38397.213875 55318.148523 78495.557652 108845.865078 146636.552071 196576.429564
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 24684.996316 37715.828117 54862.271667 78518.900244 109694.366436 148726.095046 200559.056978